Wie immer vielleicht etwas simplifizierend, aber im Kern korrekt:

Let’s begin by going back to the 1920s. Back then, the USA was the industrial powerhouse of the world and its number one exporter. In those boom years, America had the largest trade SURPLUS on the planet. At the time, trade balances were settled in gold. So, the US built up the world’s largest reserves – in gold. It still has them. […]

In the 1980s, Japan had the biggest trade surplus in the world. You remember Japan, Inc? It was such an export success story that people worried that the Japanese would take over the world. But in 1989, Japan, Inc. peaked out. Its stocks have been going down ever since – 20 years already.

Now, it’s China’s turn. China has the world’s largest trade surplus and its largest pile of reserves. (Unfortunately for China, after 1971, treasuries switched to using paper dollars for reserves. So China has one enormous pile of paper…not gold.)

Quelle: Volatility in the Police State

Die Frage ist nun doch: Wer kommt nach China? Kann überhaupt noch jemand nachfolgen, oder bricht das ganze Kartenhaus zusammen, wenn uns das Öl auszugehen droht?

Dank des Handelsüberschusses wäre immerhin der WC-Papier-Nachschub Chinas über Jahrzehnte gedeckt. Ob die USA mit ihren Gold-Reserven wirklech glücklich (und zu ihrer alten Stärke zurückfinden) würden, ist hingegen eine völlige andere, unbeantwortbare Frage. Wir werden sehen.