Freitag, 28. November 2008

Die Truthan-Analogie

„You can understand how fraudulent most economic analysis is,“ Nassim explained, „just by looking the life of the turkey. The animal is fed for 1000 days…and then it is killed. So, if you plotted out the turkey’s life on a chart, it would look great for 1,000 days…each day, the food arrived reliably, and each day, the turkey gained weight. The turkeys would look around and say they were enjoying growth and a bull market. Momentum investors would see it as an opportunity. The quants would run linear regressions on the data and prove that the risk was minimal. „

Quelle: We Are All Turkeys, Waiting for the Axe

Und dann, am 1000. Tag wird das arme Vieh geschlachtet. Niemand hätte es für möglich gehalten, wenn er sich nur auf die Voten der Finanzexperten und Chart-Techniker verlassen hätte …

Alan Greenspan recently explained that he ‚had never seen anything like this before.‘ Well, of course he had never seen it before. It never happened before.

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