„Schatz, ich hol‘ schon mal Bier & Popcorn …“ – da will nicht jemand von allen den bankrotten Hauskäufern ablenken?
Mittwoch, 22. August 2007
Archiv ‘USA’
Montag, 20. August 2007
Greenspan ist mein Held
It is, of course, possible for home prices to fall as they did in a couple of quarters in 1990. But any analogy to stock market pricing behavior and bubbles is a rather large stretch. […] Local conditions dominate, even though mortgage interest rates are similar throughout the country. Home prices in Portland, Maine, do not arbitrage those in Portland, Oregon. Thus, any bubbles that might emerge would tend to be local, not national, in scope.
Quelle: Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan (4. März 2003)
Aber jetzt hat ja „Helicopter Ben“ die Zügel übernommen und reitet den amerikanischen Gaul in den Sonnenuntergang …
Bernanke zieht klare Ansagen vor. Wie Greenspan nennt er Preisstabilität als oberste Priorität. Mit seiner offenen Sprache hat er sich sogleich einen Spitznamen verdient. Er sehe sich im Besitz ausreichender Mittel, um Inflation wie Deflation zu bekämpfen. Als ein Naseweis wissen wollte, was Bernanke täte, wenn Amerika bei Deflationsgefahr bereits wieder auf einem Zinsrekordtief wäre wie Juni 2003, antwortete er: Selbst bei einem Zinssatz von null Prozent könne die Fed Geldbündel aus Helikoptern abwerfen. Prompt nannte man ihn „Helicopter-Ben“.
Quelle: „Helicopter-Ben“ bereit zur Landung
Gut zu Wissen, das der gute, alte Alan keinen Schaden mehr anrichten kann … oder halt! War da nicht etwas? Oh mein Gott: Deutsche Bank kauft Greenspan ein Na dann Feierabend! Räumt alle Kaugummis weg, sonst gibt es bald Unmengen von platzenden Bubbles in Frankfurt am Main.
Labels: USA, Wirtschaft
Sonntag, 19. August 2007
Die nächste Bubble kommt bestimmt
Grundlegende Kritik (jetzt darf man ja – „Ich hab’s immer gewusst!“):
The dirty secret of bankers is that they are bad at science and maths, and do not understand that a model, however sophisticated, cannot provide output of a quality better than the input. Lots of data does not mean better data; […]
[…] the supposed superiority of the „efficient markets“ to drive economic behavior, that over the insistence that things be valued in dollars (discounted cash flow) or be worthless, and that over the idea that greed is good and leads to socially acceptable outcomes. The core of the Reagan-Thatcher revolution is that greed (especailly that of financiers capturing future cash flows of the real world for their personal, immediate profit) spontaneously improves the common good, and that all regulations and taxes that limit it should be dismantled.
[…] unregulated markets always eventually lead to bubbles/collapses and obscenely inequitable wealth distribution. That is the reason that throughout history democratic governments always end up intervening to regulate and moderate the effects of „free“ markets. Only those willfully ignoring history could believe that the invisible hand of the market place magically maximizes human happiness, and yet it is not hard to find the true believers.
[…] there are two types of economies: savings based or debt based. Being a saver in a debt economy means you lose wealth. Just as being a debtor in a saving economy loses you wealth.
Quelle: So they all knew it was a bubble, now?
Todsicher
Investors who come to believe that certain investments are “sure-things” often learn painful lessons at the most inopportune times (like when far too much leveraged speculation pushes the asset class to unsustainable levels). And, by definition, those lessons are learned when investors least expect it. The NASDAQ crash of 2000-2002 should have indoctrinated people to some extent, but our Fed’s goofball monetary policy was so extreme, any sense of the first leg down (“hey, maybe you really CAN lose all of your money investing!”) realization was lost like a fart in a hurricane.
Quelle: Real Estate and Asset Deflation 11: Death of the “Sure Thing”
Roth hat den Durchblick
Schön, dass der Chef der Nationalbank den Durchblick hat:
Immerhin sei in den USA «Unglaubliches passiert. Da erhielten Leute Kredite, die weder Einkommen noch Vermögen hatten.» Man habe dann diese faulen Kredite weitergereicht, in strukturierte Produkte umgewandelt und mit einem Gütesiegel versehen. «Und nun sehen wir, dass es für solche Papiere keinen Markt gibt. Jetzt schlägt die Realität zurück. […] Für ihn ist klar, dass die Zentralbanken nicht Hedge-Funds und Institute retten, sondern sicherstellen müssen, dass das System der Liquiditätsversorgung funktioniert.
Quelle: «Es ist Unglaubliches passiert»
Subprime – kehrt der Boom schon bald zurück?
Erstaunt hat mich, dass ein entfernter Bekannter, der im Investment-Sektor tätig ist, vor kurzem verlauten liess, dass man in wenigen Monaten wieder in den Subprime-Markt investieren sollte. Ich verstehe ja kaum etwas von der Materie, aber wie soll man jemals Geld mit mittellosen Hausbesitzern generieren können? Wie sagen Blogger aus den USA: „Turn shit into gold“.
Tags: Finanzen
Labels: Schweiz, USA, Wirtschaft
Dienstag, 14. August 2007
Alles wird gut
Oder doch etwa nicht? In einem Artikel über das us-amerikanische Spekulations-Kartenhaus lese ich einen köstlichen Vergleich:
Still, even though the subprime contagion has spread to all loan categories, the glut of homes continues to increase, and the mortgage industry is flatlining on the emergency room floor; there is room for optimism. Consider the comforting comments of Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson: „I don’t think it [the subprime mess] poses any threat to the overall economy. . . . .In an economy as diverse and healthy as this, losses may occur in a number of institutions, but that overall this is contained and we have a healthy economy.“
“Contained?” This is “contained?”
Newsweek’s Daniel Gross had this reaction to Paulson’s remarks: “If the containment policy of the Cold War worked as well as this subprime-mess containment policy, we’d all be speaking Russian and living on collective farms.”
Labels: USA, Wirtschaft
Dienstag, 14. August 2007
Klimaschwindel: Kein CO2, sondern Sommerzeit!
Nachfolgend ein Leserbrief, der in einer us-amerikanischen Gazette erschien:
Daylight exacerbates warning
You may have noticed that March of this year was particularly hot. As a matter of fact, I understand that it was the hottest March since the beginning of the last century. All of the trees were fully leafed out and legions of bugs and snakes were crawling around during a time in Arkansas when, on a normal year, we might see a snowflake or two. This should come as no surprise to any reasonable person. As you know, Daylight Saving Time started almost a month early this year. You would think that members of Congress would have considered the warming effect that an extra hour of daylight would have on our climate. Or did they ? Perhaps this is another plot by a liberal Congress to make us believe that global warming is a real threat. Perhaps next time there should be serious studies performed before Congress passes laws with such far-reaching effects.
CONNIE M. MESKIMEN / Hot Springs
Quelle: NWAnews.com :: Northwest Arkansas‘ News Source:
Dank: Belina
Donnerstag, 9. August 2007
USA bald im Bürgerkrieg?
Wo die freie Meinungsäusserung hochgehalten wird, kommt nicht immer Intelligentes raus:
And it isn’t just progressives and liberals. I have heard some conservatives say the same thing.
Everyone is thinking the same thing; Are we headed toward another civil war?
Quelle: The Rising Tide of Popular Discontent in America
Immer diese Verschwörungsfanatiker und Untergangspropheten aus der ersten Demokratie der Welt!
Aus der Luft gegriffen
Ein Bürgerkrieg wird wohl kaum passieren – wie uns nicht zuletzt ein feinsinniger Reddit-Kommentator lehrt:
The only way there will be a civil war in the US is if television died.
Quelle: Kommentar auf Reddit
Freitag, 3. August 2007
Zeugenbericht I-35W
There might have been one car behind us, but I think we were the last car to ever drive under that bridge. I might make a bumber sticker.
Quelle: August 1st, 2007
Labels: USA
Montag, 30. Juli 2007
Radikales Umdenken
Of course the very last thing we should be doing — which everyone from the Nascar morons to the Ivy League „greenies“ is doing — is focus all effort on how to keep the American automobile fleet running by some magic means other than gasoline. I say, just as a mental jump-start, let’s put at least some of that effort into getting the choo-choo trains running again — but this is too silly for the boys at MIT or even the Pentagon.
Quelle: Peak Tech
Der hier geht an alle, die glauben, mit noch mehr Technologie seien all unsere Probleme zu lösen …
Montag, 30. Juli 2007
Managerlöhne
Noch Fragen?
(Wichtig: In den USA erhalten CEOs oftmals deutlich höhere Gehälter als in Europa)
Labels: USA, Wirtschaft
Samstag, 28. Juli 2007
Wer will noch eine Hypothek? Wer hat noch keine?
Her 29-year-old daughter, a graduate student with an annual income of less than $20,000, qualified for a mortgage of $600,000 with no money down, split into two different loans at 8.75 percent and 12.5 percent interest rates.
All of a sudden they realize that lending out $500,000 to someone making $40,000 a year wasn’t so smart.
Quelle: Real Buyers of Genius: Another $20,000 a year person takes on a $600,000 mortgage.
Ja ja, bei schnell verdientem Geld setzt bei einigen das Gehirn aus. Wie immer braucht es aber zwei, um solche wahnwitzigen Verkäufe zu realisieren: Den Käufer (Idiot) und den Verkäufer (Dummschwätzer):
Now that we are entering the crisis stage, and this has been argued ad nauseam in many economic books regarding bubbles we start seeing an outing of the shysters and snake oil salesmen […]
Mit dem Platzen der Blase wird der Schock auch an die Wertpapiere weitergegeben (spätestens seit tüftige Geldvermehrer herausgefunden haben, wie man Risikohypotheken handelbar machte und anfänglich Profit abwerfen liess, hängt alles irgendwie zusammen):
Yes, you just made 1% on your investments while the price of gas just went up 20%. Great job America in understanding that inflation is another tax. Yet we have a core of people out there that god forbid, they hear the word tax in their vernacular and start screaming communism as if Hugo Chavez was marching on Washington. Yet they are okay to allow massive deficit spending ala the war in Iraq and tax breaks and they smile while they can’t comprehend why their dollar doesn’t buy as much Wal-Mart crap as it did a year ago.
[…] the amount we are spending is so spectacular that someone has to pay for it and it sure as hell isn’t going to come from higher taxes. So we get taxed via inflation, the stupid tax, and people go on with their merry lives.
„Jungunternehmer“
Wohl etwa in meiner Generation wurde es erstmals möglich, mit 25 schon zu Millionär zu werden. Einige schafften es bei der Dot-Com-Bubble, Casey Serin schaffte es aber leider nicht bei der Housing-Bubble. Der Grund:
Unfortunately for Serin, the real estate market was essentially peaking almost exactly when he decided to quit his job. In what would prove to be a recurring theme in his life, Serin arrived to the game proverbially „a day late and a dollar short“.
Quelle: Casey Serin
Tags: Finanzen
Labels: USA, Wirtschaft
