Sonntag, 19. August 2007

Die nächste Bubble kommt bestimmt

Grundlegende Kritik (jetzt darf man ja – „Ich hab’s immer gewusst!“):

The dirty secret of bankers is that they are bad at science and maths, and do not understand that a model, however sophisticated, cannot provide output of a quality better than the input. Lots of data does not mean better data; […]

[…] the supposed superiority of the „efficient markets“ to drive economic behavior, that over the insistence that things be valued in dollars (discounted cash flow) or be worthless, and that over the idea that greed is good and leads to socially acceptable outcomes. The core of the Reagan-Thatcher revolution is that greed (especailly that of financiers capturing future cash flows of the real world for their personal, immediate profit) spontaneously improves the common good, and that all regulations and taxes that limit it should be dismantled.

[…] unregulated markets always eventually lead to bubbles/collapses and obscenely inequitable wealth distribution. That is the reason that throughout history democratic governments always end up intervening to regulate and moderate the effects of „free“ markets. Only those willfully ignoring history could believe that the invisible hand of the market place magically maximizes human happiness, and yet it is not hard to find the true believers.

[…] there are two types of economies: savings based or debt based. Being a saver in a debt economy means you lose wealth. Just as being a debtor in a saving economy loses you wealth.

Quelle: So they all knew it was a bubble, now?


Investors who come to believe that certain investments are “sure-things” often learn painful lessons at the most inopportune times (like when far too much leveraged speculation pushes the asset class to unsustainable levels). And, by definition, those lessons are learned when investors least expect it. The NASDAQ crash of 2000-2002 should have indoctrinated people to some extent, but our Fed’s goofball monetary policy was so extreme, any sense of the first leg down (“hey, maybe you really CAN lose all of your money investing!”) realization was lost like a fart in a hurricane.

Quelle: Real Estate and Asset Deflation 11: Death of the “Sure Thing”

Roth hat den Durchblick

Schön, dass der Chef der Nationalbank den Durchblick hat:

Immerhin sei in den USA «Unglaubliches passiert. Da erhielten Leute Kredite, die weder Einkommen noch Vermögen hatten.» Man habe dann diese faulen Kredite weitergereicht, in strukturierte Produkte umgewandelt und mit einem Gütesiegel versehen. «Und nun sehen wir, dass es für solche Papiere keinen Markt gibt. Jetzt schlägt die Realität zurück. […] Für ihn ist klar, dass die Zentralbanken nicht Hedge-Funds und Institute retten, sondern sicherstellen müssen, dass das System der Liquiditätsversorgung funktioniert.

Quelle: «Es ist Unglaubliches passiert»

Subprime – kehrt der Boom schon bald zurück?

Erstaunt hat mich, dass ein entfernter Bekannter, der im Investment-Sektor tätig ist, vor kurzem verlauten liess, dass man in wenigen Monaten wieder in den Subprime-Markt investieren sollte. Ich verstehe ja kaum etwas von der Materie, aber wie soll man jemals Geld mit mittellosen Hausbesitzern generieren können? Wie sagen Blogger aus den USA: „Turn shit into gold“.

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Labels: Schweiz, USA, Wirtschaft

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